The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised the Federal Government to review and adjust its 2025 budget assumptions, warning that current oil price benchmarks may be overly optimistic in light of global market trends.
In its Article IV Consultation Report released Wednesday in Washington, D.C., the IMF emphasised the need to “recalibrate the 2025 budget to lower oil prices,” pointing out that the government’s $75 per barrel benchmark is misaligned with current market realities.
This recommendation comes even as the Fund revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection upward to 3.4 percent from its earlier 3.2 percent forecast. The revision was attributed to a steady recovery in oil output, which recently climbed to 1.745 million barrels per day, according to Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, alongside a gradual moderation in inflation, which fell to 22.97 percent in May.
Despite these positive indicators, the IMF noted that Nigeria’s N54.99 trillion 2025 budget, pegged on an oil price of $75 per barrel, is potentially unsustainable.
As of Wednesday, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were trading at approximately $68.68 and $67.04 per barrel, respectively—well below the benchmark used in Nigeria’s fiscal planning.
Meanwhile, the last time crude prices neared the $75 mark was in mid-June, at the height of geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Since then, prices have steadily declined.
