white Christmas are becoming increasingly rare in Germany. According to the German Weather Service (DWD), the chances of snow on the holidays have now decreased significantly and are mostly limited to higher altitudes.
A reliable weather forecast for Christmas Eve and the Christmas days is only possible shortly before, but according to meteorologists’ estimates, a few snowflakes are unlikely, even regionally. DWD meteorologist Marcel Schmid said: “It remains to be seen whether there will be enough for a few flakes on Christmas Eve, at least regionally.” According to the DWD, there is definitely only snow on the Zugspitze.
Decrease in the probability of snow by 15 to 40 percent
The background is the so-called Christmas thaw, a frequently occurring mild weather phase around the holidays. According to the DWD, such periods of weather occur with a probability of around 70 percent and lead to possible snow melting again quickly.
Long-term data also shows a clear trend, as DWD spokesman Andreas Walter announced: “The probability of a white Christmas has decreased significantly in the last few decades.” The last time there was a continuous snow cover of at least one centimeter on all three Christmas days was in 2010, even in the lowlands. If you compare the periods from 1961 to 1990 with 1991 to 2020, you can see a decrease in the probability of snow by 15 to 40 percent, depending on the region, said Walter.
Good chances for a white Christmas in the Alps and low mountain ranges
In Munich, for example, according to the DWD, statistically speaking, there used to be white people about every third year Christmas. Recently it was only about every ninth year. In Freiburg, the probability of a white Christmas fell from around 17 to around five percent.
According to the DWD, there are still relatively good chances of snow in the Christmas holidays Alps and other low mountain ranges and high altitudes. However, in lowland regions, in the west and north of Germany and on the coasts, white Christmas has become rare.
Meteorologists attribute this development primarily to global warming. “Of course, it used to be cooler and colder at Christmas because climate change hadn’t hit that hard yet,” said Walter. Even back then, there was rarely a solid snow cover in many places. “Perhaps the view of it is always a little romanticized” – because that’s what we want.
