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Global warming has significantly increased the likelihood of global floods, heat waves, storms or fires in the coming year. The Climate change are already pushing millions of people to the limits of their ability to adapt, wrote the scientific initiative World Weather Attribution (WWA) in its annual report for 2025. “Every year Risks of climate change less hypothetical and more about brutal reality,” said study leader Friederike Otto from Imperial College London.
The researchers counted 157 extreme weather events worldwide this year: 49 Floods49 heat waves, 38 storms, eleven wildfires, seven droughts and three Cold snaps. Events are only included in the list if a certain threshold is exceeded: for example, if there are more than 100 deaths, if more than a million people are affected, or if a state of emergency or disaster is declared at national or regional level.
In the next step, the scientists examined in more detail the extent to which climate change played a role in 22 of the events. According to the report, 17 events had become more likely or were more severe due to climate change. For the remaining five – all extreme rainfall events – there were no clear results.
Fires in Spain and Portugal were 40 times more likely due to climate change
The researchers pointed out some concrete examples: In the devastating wildfires in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula In August, modeling calculations showed that climate change had made fires of this magnitude 40 times more likely. There was also a seven-day heat wave in February in South Sudan with temperatures reaching 40 degrees. According to the analysis, without climate change the temperature would have been a maximum of 36 degrees.
In addition, climate change has a significant impact on the Wildfires in Los Angeles in January had. “These fires have claimed approximately 400 lives, insured losses total $30 billion – the largest insured wildfire losses ever recorded – and uninsured losses are likely much higher,” the researchers wrote. Climate change has increased the likelihood of these fires by 35 percent.
According to the report, tropical cyclones were more violent than would have been the case without climate change. Hurricane Melissa, which hit Jamaica and Cuba in October, brought wind speeds of up to 288 kilometers per hour. Without climate change it would have been 270 kilometers per hour.
“Decision makers must face reality”
The research team pointed out the devastating consequences of a failed climate policy. “Decision makers must confront the reality that continued dependence on fossil fuels costs lives, causes billions of dollars in economic losses and causes irreversible damage to entire communities worldwide,” said study leader Otto. The report shows that previous efforts have not been sufficient to combat the global temperature rise and the worst effects to prevent.
Even every tenth of a degree counts, as the team made clear during heat waves in recent years, for example in the Amazon region or in Burkina Faso and Mali. These events have become almost ten times more likely since the Paris Climate Agreement was signed in 2015 – with global temperatures increasing by 0.3 degrees Celsius since then.
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